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Wednesday, 10 December 2014

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REGIMES FOR TRADE AND FINANCE

The emergence of the study of international regimes was a significant change in the study of international organization by marking a shift away from an exclusive focus on formal international organizations. Krasner defines regimes as “implicit or explicit principles, norms, rules and decision-making procedures around which actors’ expectations converge in a given area of international relations. Regimes "are more specialized arrangements that pertain to well-defined activities, resources, or geographical areas and often involve only some subset of the members of international society. Regimes may or may not take the form of international organizations.
The term regime has a long history in economics. An economic regime is a given set of rules and/or institutions, which are said to govern the economy as a system, and therefore it accounts for its qualitative (static or dynamic) behaviors. For ages governments have been concerned with issues of international trade and have made attempts at regulating various aspects of international economic relations. This has been through both international organizations as well as international regimes. International economic regimes are defined as rules, norms, procedures and institutions that are intended to achieve common economic goals by constraining the behavior of governments. These regimes range from simple bilateral trade agreements to complex multilateral arrangements. They are shaped by political factors such as the
·       distribution of power among the players
·       degree of shared goals and interests
·       nature of leadership within the system
International economic systems are clusters of regimes that include rules of trade, investment, and monetary flows. Since the World War II there have been three international economic systems namely-Bretton Woods, Interdependence, and Globalization.
Bretton Woods System
The Bretton Woods system prevailed from WWII until 1971 and was effective in controlling conflict and achieving the common goals of its members. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank (WB) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) are the three organizations that embodied the rules, institutions and procedures of the system. They remain to date the cornerstones of international economic governance.
Since these institutions were created during and immediately after the WWII, in their early years of operation many countries were still recovering from the devastation of war were not in any position to compete internationally. International trade in way of international flow of goods and money was largely hampered by tariffs, quotas and exchange controls that protected national markets.
The Bretton woods system anchored on three political foundations:
·       the concentration of power in a small number of states/countries
·       the existence of a cluster of important interests shared by these states
·       the presence of a dominant power willing and able to assume a leadership role
Developed countries of Western Europe together with North America dominated the Bretton Woods system as a result of the concentration of both political and economic power in their countries. These countries faced a challenge from those countries that were communist leaning such as those of Eastern Europe that were in a different international economic system. Although Less Developed Countries (LDCs) were integrated into the world economy, they did not influence much. Because of their political and economic weaknesses, they had no voice in the management of world economy. The concentration of power facilitated the system’s management by confining the number of actors whose agreement was necessary to establish new international economic regimes and to carry out management within the agreed upon system.
The shared belief among the developed countries in capitalism and liberalism and their reliance on primarily market mechanisms and private ownership made it management easy. These countries also agreed that governmental intervention was needed for the liberal economic system. They favored a liberal economic system that relied primarily on a free market with minimum barriers to the flow of private trade and capital. They all agreed that an open system would maximize economic welfare. This they believed would lead to economic prosperity, economic harmony as well as international peace.
The US as the world’s foremost economic and political power, was in a position to assume the responsibility role of leadership of international management. The US economy was not damaged by the war and its large market, great productive capability, financial facilities, and strong currency was the dominant world economy. In addition, the US was the world’s strongest military power and leader of the Western alliance based on the fact that the US had the ability to support a large a large military force and together with possession of nuclear weapons. With the encouragement of the Europeans and Japanese following their economic exhaustion and the willingness of the US to assume responsibility of leadership, the US took up the leadership role of international management.
Interdependence
This system characterized by interdependence replaced the Bretton Woods system and was in existence from 1971 to 1989. A shift in the balance of power among the key players together with changes in the nature of international economic interactions, led a to a restructuring of the international economic order.
Economic growth and ongoing international liberalization combined with innovations in technology led to increased volumes of international economic interactions and growing penetration of national economies in international trade, investment, and monetary flows. The reduction of trade barriers and capital together with the revolution in information technologies enabled an expansion in international economic interactions among the developed market economies these included
·       larger international capital flows
·       growth of international trade
·       development of international systems of production.
This resulted in the national economies becoming more interdependent and more sensitive to economic policy and events outside the national economy. This resulted in two reactions among the national economies:
1.     First reaction: Erection of new barriers to limit economic interaction together with interdependence. It was argued that continued focus on tariff reduction was no longer appropriate in an increasingly tariff-free world economy. Non-tariff barriers had become embedded in national economies as a response of reduced tariffs. There was pressure for new forms of protection and managed trade as well as efforts to strengthen regional free trade groupings.
2.     Second reaction: To go beyond Bretton Woods and the idea of a limited management to new forms of international economic cooperation that would manage interdependence. An open system, according to this viewpoint, maximizes welfare but required in turn new forms of international management that would assume responsibilities and prerogatives formerly undertaken by the state. These views led to efforts to establish a regular series of summits and attempts to coordinate national macroeconomic policies although these were largely unsuccessful. In the 1980s new initiatives were taken up to upgrade the multilateral trade regime and the Uruguay Round was established.
This period also encountered changes in power and leadership which also altered political management of the international economic system. Although the developed countries remained the dominant powers both economically and politically, other countries outside the group challenged their right to manage the system. The LDCs sought to increase their access to management and therefore the rewards of the international economic system. Some developing countries sought to work within the prevailing regime and to play a greater role within the system while others dissented from the liberal foundations of international management arguing that open monetary, trade, and financial system perpetuated their underdevelopment and subordination to the developed countries. They sought to develop their economies both by protecting themselves from international economic interaction and by trying to make their development a primary goal and responsibility of the system. The New International economic Order was created as a result of this during the oil crisis of 1970s when part of these countries made an effort to alter the rules of the game.
About the same time in the 1970s and 1980s the Soviet Union and countries of Eastern Europe sought limited participation in the international economy. Changes in the Soviet Union and China opened up the possibility of greater East-West economic interaction. Under Gorbachev’s perestroika/restructuring the Soviet Union sought to move the Soviet economy more in the market direction and to open trade, finance, and investment relations with the West. This move resulted in the fast economic decline of the Soviet Union and helped bring about the breakup of the Soviet empire. On the other hand China’s reforms resulted in rapid growth.
Also within the group of advanced industrial nation’s power shifted. In Europe the creation of European Economic Community a trading block by six countries rivaled the US economy and also emerged as a potential political force. This later transformed into the EU whose goal was the elimination of trade barriers and the creation of a customs union. It also encompassed the removal of all barriers to the movement of capital, labor, and services. At the same time Japan became a major world economic power and joined the developed countries and was a powerful competitor of both the US and Europe.
The weakening of the dollar as well as the weakening of balance of trade in the 1970s and 1980s diminished US international economic power. The US suffered both government spending and the balance of payments.As this happened, Japan and Europe became dissatisfied with the prerogatives that leadership gave the US and criticized these prerogatives especially the dollar system and US payments deficits.The US also was increasingly dissatisfied with the costs of leadership. Détente and the lessening of the perceived security threat weakened the security argument for Western economic cooperation and the US leadership.
Despite this no leader emerged to fulfill this role. Europe through the EU lacked the political unity needed to lead the system. This period was characterized by periodic crises and conflict among members. The powerful members sought to address the management problems by developing new mechanisms for multilateral cooperation. Among these were the reforms for the Bretton Woods institutions, including a major revision of the international monetary regime and a greater focus on economic development. Other cooperative arrangements such as the Group of seven G7 economic summits to supplement the existing institutional structures were formed. This ushered in continuing liberalization, the gradual evolution of international econ0omic institutions, and the adaptation of the system to the new level of international economic interaction and the changed balance of power.

Globalization
Another international economic system emerged in the 1989 and runs to date. This is an extension of interdependence. Continued international liberalization combined with improved technologies increased international economic interaction. This era had several changes the most profound were the political changes. The end of the Cold War and the collapse of communism political bases shifted in the global economy. The great divide between the capitalists and communists worlds and their respective economic systems disappeared. The developing countries that had opposed the liberal international economic order chose to join the prevailing consensus.
The system became truly global from a geographical perspective. With differing levels of effectiveness, governments across the world adopted capitalist ideology/polices of deregulation, privatization and international liberalization. Trade barriers were reduced, exchange controls were removed, and investment bans were eliminated. Together with this economic changes were changes in technology. New technological advances increased the capacity to communicate and at the same time reduced the costs. This resulted in increased internationalization of production and finance.
The impact of globalization was uneven. Many countries were and individuals were able to benefit from globalization however those that were unable to compete on the world markets were left behind. Poor countries especially those of Africa were unable to expand their trade or attract investment and became more marginalized. Globalization resulted in more penetration of international economic interaction into national economies. It questioned the ability of governments to pursue other goals such as environmental preservation and labor policies.
The end of the Cold War and the creation of a global capitalist economy altered power relations. Economic integration also created new power relationships. The EU was an emerging powerhouse. Governments sought to respond to the new order by modernizing institutions, rules and procedures and by developing techniques to manage crises and pursue common interests.   
Trade policies and strategies
National trade policies and practice tend to waver between protecting national interests and domestic industry to limit the import of goods and services (known as protectionism), and promoting free trade. When the international exchange of goods is neither hindered nor encouraged, trade is referred to as being free trade. Neo-liberals argue that a free trade system is most efficient because it allows countries to use their resources to best advantage, producing the goods they are best placed to produce, and importing others, thus driving economic growth. Others argue that even under a system with limited trade barriers or none at all, “free trade” is hampered by restrictions on labor mobility, monopolies on production and, not least, political imperatives (for example countries wanting to maintain self-sufficiency in key production areas such as food).
Most developed countries use two types of strategic trade policies: subsidies or taxes on imports or exports and investment or adjustment assistance subsidies. Export subsidies, with few exceptions, such as agricultural products, violate the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).
Inward looking and outward looking Trade strategies
With reference to the government policy towards trade, trade strategies may be broadly divided into two groups, viz., outward oriented and inward oriented strategies.
An outward oriented or outward looking strategy is one in which trade and industrial policies do not discriminate between production for the domestic market and exports, or between purchase of domestic goods and foreign goods.As Krueger observes, an outward oriented strategy is "not a government decree that exports are desirable. Rather, it is an entire set of policies oriented toward encouraging the production of goods and services efficiently."
An outward oriented strategy is, thus, a neutral strategy and it does not mean an export oriented or export promotion strategy as is sometimes mistaken, although such a strategy could pave way for an export- led growth as experienced by some of the south-east Asian countries.An outward oriented policy discriminates neither in favor of exports nor is it against import substitution. It is an open policy Neutrality is its essence.
An inward oriented or inward looking strategy is characterized by a bias of trade and industrial policies in favor of domestic production as against foreign trade. As import substitution is the key element of the inward oriented strategy, it is often described as the 'import substitution strategy.
Protection of domestic industries from foreign competition is an essential feature of the inward oriented strategy. Protection may be accorded by tariffs, quantitative methods, etc. However, quantities methods and such administrative restrictions as licensing are very dominant under the inward looking strategy.
Nobody doubts today that world competition can only grow in the future. Competitiveness has thus become the name of the game. That is precisely what the Europeans have been striving for as they develop their community.It is what Japan has been so successful in doing with the growing number of links and agreements it has been developing with virtually all nations throughout Southeast Asia.
Theoretical model of import substitution
One of the policies and strategies employed by developing economies to grow their industrial base is import substitution. Import substitution industrialization strategy (ISI) involves producing locally, goods that were formerly imported.ISI is a trade and economic policy that advocates replacing foreign imports with domestic production. It is based on the premise that a country should attempt to reduce its foreign dependency through the local production of industrialized products.This concept is based on the ideas of the Argentine economist Raul Prebisch. The role of the state was obvious, state management of the economy should lead the national industry away from its dependence on primary exports and give impetus to the production of goods for the domestic market. The market was closed for foreign companies, and national industries were forced to develop and maintain the consumers´ wishes. The countries tried to get self-sufficient – independent from the world market and a national industrialization at any price.
The state acted as engine of development for the economy:
·       The state tried to set up the required infrastructure (roads, dams, electrification, communication system, energy etc.) to maintain the industry.
·       An overvalued exchange rate to keep inflation down and imports expensive.
·       Nationalization of key-industries such as iron, steel, wood, utilities and oil.
·       Protection of national markets against foreign competition by imposing import taxes and state control of foreign currency dealings.
·       Price controls and subsidized food to keep the wages cheap.
The outcome of import substituting industrialization (ISI)
The goals of higher efficiency, productivity and more competitiveness – a development apart from the pressure of the world market - were not been reached. The process of organizational, technical, and social development of the industries was slow and highly protected. During the 1950s the countries decided to open the market to foreign direct-investments restrictively, which, after a short period of time, ruled the more dynamical and technical sectors. The state controlled the raw materials sector; the national private sector got less and less opportunities to develop.
·       The policy was focused one dimensionally on the industrial sector. The agricultural and the services sectors were neglected.
·       The import substitution was aimed at replacing imports from abroad, but nevertheless in most Latin American countries the import of manufactured goods in fact increased. The terms of trade got worse, caused by low prices for exported raw materials and expensive imports. The industrialization could not keep up with the technical and innovative development of the free world markets. As a result, new technologies and machinery had to be bought from transnational companies.
·       The import substitution strategy led to over-intrusive, bloated and inefficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Large SOEs and private sector companies operated as monopolies/oligopolies within a protected market.
·       Internal demand was not strong enough. The needed goods got expensive and only affordable for the upper classes. There was no need to upgrade productivity.
·       The bloatedness, inefficiency, and corruptness of the state’s bureaucracy limited the scope of action and reforms.
·       The industrialization failed in ending the social disparity, it got worse ever since. The unequal distribution of the income supported this trend.
·       The ISI had massive influence on capital formation and the financial system. State development banks and the expansive investment for the ISI, financed by overseas credits, led to the debt crisis.
·       Inefficient SOEs, large state subsidies, bad terms of trade, foreign credits and inability to collect taxes (low and largely unpaid) led to fiscal deficits and inflationary pressures.
·       The countries’ economies got more and more unattractive for foreign investors.

·       The strategy to develop the market under protection first and open it for the world market afterwards did not work out. The conditions for a world market integration did not improve.

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